Q&A
Yoneshima: Your current performance is outperforming the guidance from the previous quarter, and the Q4
results appear quite strong. Could you explain what factors changed significantly between your outlook in
February and the actual results in March?
Arai: Before we discuss February and March of this year, I’d like you to recall the situation exactly one year
ago. At that time, discussions regarding US tariffs emerged, and our clients' hiring activities cooled down
almost instantly. To be honest, compared to that, when we formed our forecast in the last week of January, we
did not anticipate such a strong upward trend in February and March.
As Deko mentioned, we can now feel that our various initiatives are taking effect. Around this time last year,
Deko’s outlook was quite pessimistic, looking at the situation in February and March, it was a very difficult
period. You may recall us stating that growth in the US was effectively zero. This time, however, it is the polar
opposite.
As I touched upon earlier, we have engaged in executive-level outreach, and those efforts are now reflecting
in the numbers. The results are visible, and we are building a forecast that reflects this future visibility.
As noted in the earnings announcement, we have incorporated geopolitical risks into our figures. From my
perspective, there are many potential upsides that I haven't even factored in yet. We are essentially looking at
an extension of current trends. Furthermore, because visibility for the second half is still relatively low, we
have kept our forecast on the conservative side. Therefore, if new initiatives come in on top, or if visibility into
the second half improves, these numbers represent a baseline from which we can target the upside.
So, if you ask whether we have fully baked everything into forecast, I would say not necessarily. Looking at
Q4, we saw 25% US ARPJ growth, and the US saw very strong growth in March and April. In contrast, our
full-year US revenue outlook is 13.6%, which is lower on average because the forecast is structured to
account for risks.
While I believe you already consider our forecasts as strong figures, the picture will become even clearer as
the “ fog lifts. ” As our new strategic initiatives succeed, we may see even stronger numbers. For now, this is
the outlook we are projecting.
Maeda: Could you provide the cost outlook? I’d like to know your direction for personnel and marketing
expenses, and if possible, a breakdown by segment.
Arai: Regarding Stock-Based Compensation, you can assume that 97% of it is allocated to HR Tech, as I
mentioned earlier.
On the personnel side, our basic policy is not to increase headcount. While we will continue to reinforce
specific areas, the forecast is built on the assumption that we will not see a sudden increase in hiring. In the
HR Technology segment, even as revenue grows, we do not plan to increase headcount.
As for marketing, we will continue to invest a significant amount. However, at our current revenue scale, even
1% of revenue represents a massive budget. While we won’t be suppressing our marketing spend, there is a
limit to how much we can effectively deploy relative to our scale.
For those who have followed us for a long time, you might remember when a 30-second Super Bowl ad would
impact our margin by 1% or 2%. Those days are far behind us. Today, our scale is such that even if we were
to run such an ad, its impact would be virtually unnoticeable.
As revenue grows, and this relates to the 50% margin target I mentioned, if you model a 10% annual revenue
growth over three years while keeping costs flat, you can see how the numbers work out. It’s not a matter of
us "trying harder".