In fact, in Japan, the demand for the recruitment business is
increasing. Deko mentioned in the meeting that
he looked closely at those kinds of statistics and explained them
to me in detail, and he said he was
referencing past cases in the US.
For 15 years, from the late ’90s to about 2010, US factory
workers dropped from 17ꢀmillion to 11ꢀmillion, yet
production increased.
It's said that there are about 30 million white-collar workers in
the US, so if we assume that they are the group
most likely to be impacted by developments like today's AI, then
yes, there may be some reduction.
However, as with what happened in the manufacturing sector, we
haven't seen a rise in unemployment as a
result. Instead, what tends to happen is that such talent gets
redistributed into other industries.
And what I always come back to is just how massive the job market
is. It is not limited to a single industry, but
spans across all sectors, so it is enormous. For a Japanese
analogy, though it might not resonate with
everyone, it is like thinking of a huge body of water, such as
Lake Biwa, or even a giant pool.
So the idea that AI alone will cause everyone to lose their jobs
does not really seem likely to me.
In specific areas, yes, that kind of disruption may occur. But if
you look at the broader pool, I think what will
happen is that more people will shift to working in other
industries, or more people will start earning higher
wages in other sectors.
So, if you reflect on all of this, I believe the labor industry
in the US, or rather the business we are in, is
gradually becoming more similar to Japan.
Looking at what kinds of roles are currently in demand in Japan,
and where business clients are willing to
invest in hiring, will serve as an important reference for the
areas we aim to develop in the US.
That is why, when it comes to AI, I do not think we will see
sudden dramatic changes. Instead, I believe we will
see gradual shifts across various aspects.
For example, if the unemployment rate were to reach 10%, that
would be an extremely serious situation.
However, I do not think that is likely to happen. That is the
point I am trying to make here.
Of course, I am not trying to avoid the issue. But realistically,
if the unemployment rate were to reach 10 %,
that is not something we as a company could solve. It would be a
matter for the government or national policy.
Still, we want to do what we can.
Some people may point to factors like reduced labor supply due to
immigration restrictions, or the challenges
that come with the introduction of AI, and say, 'this will be
tough for Recruit.' I understand those views, but I
think that is a very narrow and localized way of looking at the
situation.
If you consider the entire size of the market, the number of
jobs, and the number of industries involved, it is
difficult to conclude that such factors alone would cause a
massive impact.
It is like saying you are going to reduce the water level of Lake
Biwa by 10%. That would be a significant
undertaking. Or if you tried to change the color of Lake Biwa,
you would need to ask what kind of effort or
intervention would be required. I think that is the kind of
discussion we are having.
So, when people say things like, 'this will be difficult' or
'this will be challenging,' I respect those as personal
opinions, and I say, 'yes, that may be true.' But I do not
believe the situation is quite that extreme.
And in response to the earlier question about whether we expect a
V-shaped recovery, I do not think such a
recovery is likely. However, even without a V-shaped recovery, we
still intend to do our best through our own
efforts.
Yamamura: Perhaps liquidity rises, or the type and quality of talent
companies seek may change?
This transcript is provided for the convenience of investors only
and this is a translated version of the Japanese call.
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