In April 2026, Recruit Holdings and Indeed joined business leaders at the Semafor World Economy Summit in Washington, DC, to make the case that the most consequential workforce challenges today are being driven by forces beyond AI. Recruit Holdings President and CEO Hisayuki “Deko” Idekoba and Indeed Hiring Lab Director of Economic Research Laura Ullrich spoke on stage to share their perspectives. This post overviews the key takeaways from those conversations.

Demographic Change as a Structural Force

While AI is often cited as the primary force reshaping the labor market, Deko offered a different view.

Speaking on stage with Semafor moderator Clay Chandler, Deko pointed to a force that is moving faster and more quietly than automation: demographic change.

Indeed’s research projects 20 million fewer workers in the U.S. over the next 15 years, roughly a 5% decline in the labor force. Almost 80% of that shortfall is driven by aging populations and slowing immigration.

“What is happening is a big demographic change, an aging labor market," Deko said. "That is actually a way bigger impact than AI today.”

The consequences are already visible. The demand for essential jobs is strong and growing, but the pipeline of skilled workers is not keeping up.

“There are so many open positions – construction jobs, plumbers… healthcare jobs and electricians. It’s such a fundamental: in-person jobs. But, we don’t have a good pipeline to fill these positions.”

To address that gap, Deko highlighted the critical need for adaptability and reskilling.

Skilled trades are increasingly where opportunity lives — for example, an electrician today can earn a six-figure salary — yet hiring into these roles remains difficult because cultural assumptions about what constitutes a good career still steer many people away.

To young people who are entering the workforce, Deko advises to be more open minded about the careers that they choose and cultivate a mindset that embraces change, flexibility and continuous learning, rather than chasing jobs or acquiring skills perceived as immune to AI.

“I don’t know what kind of skills were protected or immune from the AI changes. The most important thing I just want them to have is more of a mindset to enjoy changes [as] there will be many changes.”

The shift shouldn’t fall solely on the individual. Deko concluded with a call to action, emphasizing that reskilling workers for the jobs of tomorrow is not an individual obligation, but a shared, societal responsibility.

“For all leaders, all CEOs, we have to be responsible for that. And I really want to push it.”

You can watch the full video of Deko’s session for more insights.

Deko on stage in the “Building Human-Centered Business” (Photo by Kristoffer Tripplaar & Annabelle Gordon for Semafor)

Uneven Cooling in the Labor Market

Laura joined Semafor’s Rachel Oppenheim for the “Building the Workforce of Tomorrow” track to put the data behind the headlines.

Her core message: the labor market is cooling, but not collapsing, and there is clear divergence across sectors.

Healthcare hiring remains strong, with job postings more than 30% above pre-pandemic levels, and demand in skilled trades has stayed resilient. Tech roles tell a different story: software development and data analytics are still down 30-40%, despite early signs of a rebound.

One data point she shared was particularly striking. In February 2026, U.S. hiring fell to levels last seen in April 2020. Yet job postings have not declined in the same way. The reason, she explained, is a growing gap between hiring intent and hiring action. Positions are staying open longer, and time‑to‑hire has increased as employers pause mid‑process amid economic uncertainty.

“When there’s so much economic uncertainty, people post a job and then they’re like, ‘Do we need to hire?’” she said.

On the question of how AI is killing jobs or creating them, her answer was more nuanced than a simple binary.

Laura outlined two distinct ways AI may be disrupting labor markets today. First, AI agents can automate tasks that humans previously performed. Second, some companies may be leaning more heavily into AI and capital investment, and less into labor, as they rethink cost structures.

An important distinction to make here is not to attribute recent labor market weakness, especially in tech, solely to AI. While AI is clearly having an impact, Indeed’s data suggests that the decline in tech postings aligns more closely with rising interest rates and higher capital costs than with the timing of AI entering the mainstream.

As Laura noted, “The jobs that are decreasing the fastest are not necessarily jobs that are highly exposed to AI.”

In short, AI plays a role, but macroeconomic conditions and capital costs are the primary drivers of the hiring slowdown.

You can watch Laura’s session for more insights.

Laura speaking on stage in the “Building the Workforce of Tomorrow” (Photo by Kristoffer Tripplaar & Annabelle Gordon for Semafor)

Why Matching Matters More Than Ever

Taken together, the two sessions pointed toward a consistent conclusion: the labor market is stagnating and becoming harder to navigate, but AI accounts for only a small part of this shift. While demographic shifts are structural and largely predictable, the role of AI is still taking shape.

At Recruit Group, we believe AI’s most meaningful impact on hiring at this stage lies in improving job matching. We will continue helping employers and job seekers find the right fit faster and with less friction.